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Axene Health Partners Releases COVID-19 Planning Resource Model

Axene Health Partners, LLC (AHP) announces the release of its latest resource and modeling tool, the AHP COVID-19 Planning Resource Model™ (AHP CPR Model). As the world reacted to the threat and spread of the Coronavirus, the team of actuaries and physician consultants at AHP worked together to develop a tool to help those in the real-world position of projecting demand for hospital resources. The new AHP CPR Model is currently being used by the San Diego County Health and Human Services Agency.

“In a time of crisis, Axene Health Partners offered an abundance of expertise in healthcare-related analytics, were eager to learn and collaborate, and always seemed to ask the right questions,” says San Diego County Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Nicholas Yphantides. “Perhaps the most impressive quality of Dave’s team was the work produced in a limited time. It was very impressive when Dave was able to demonstrate the first version of their COVID-19 model in less than 24 hours from the initial planning discussion.” 

The AHP CPR Model uses actuarial principles to project COVID-19 cases and related resources required to treat patients with the coronavirus (e.g. acute care beds, ICU beds, rehab beds, etc.). The modeling focuses on showing the result of user-set assumptions and projects likely outcomes and determines the demand for healthcare resources by day during the projection period. This model is not designed to replace the many existing models currently used by healthcare policy planners, but rather provide an easy to use tool to validate the results from these other models and compare to the user’s observations. The AHP CPR Model enables the user to include up to ten interventions to mitigate the infection rate and delay the resultant demand on resources.  One of the key input assumptions in this model is the use of growth rate to model both the doubling rate and R0 (R naught) to incorporate the impact of the selected interventions.

“The most valuable component of the AHP model may be its ability to account for various interventions in sequential order with each intervention accounting for the effects of previous interventions,” says Dr. Yphantides.

The AHP CPR Model is available for license to health care professionals immediately. The AHP CPR Model reflects the firm’s efforts as healthcare professionals to help educate and prepare their health system partners to respond effectively to COVID-19. Axene Health Partners is your source for trusted actuarial insights and is focused on serving the consulting needs of all aspects of the healthcare system.

For more information about how the AHP CPR Model can help in your resource planning, please contact AHP at CPRModel@axenehp.com.


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